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🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Hey hey, wait list guy reporting for duty once again. Here's a brief recap of last week's results:
Current Results
PeriodTarget Portfolio GrowthActual Portfolio GrowthTotal (YTD)467.5%440.0%Since Last post3%1.3%Expected
Strategy Recap
For those a bit confused, I trade crypto (mostly SOL) futures with 5x leverage. I intend to increase my portfolio by 3% per day, every day for a sequence of 365 days. If I am successful, my initial $20k will become $1,000,000,000 by April 2025.
I use the 3% target as a guiding metric. My primary focus is to grow my account by some amount every day. If I have hit 3% and there is a high-conviction trade in front of me, I will take it. If I am at 1% and the market is choppy, I'll stop for the day to protect my capital.
Weekly Summary
This week felt a little bit weird. I've only just had time to check back and even though I was somewhat erratic, sticking to the standard of "green is green" has served me well. I stayed safe during some of the bigger drawdowns while others got unfortunately stopped out or liquidated.
I actually closed some of my bigger trades on Friday, roughly at the post-weekend peak. I knew there would be a massive dip over the weekend so I kept it out of the market. This helped sustain the wallet over the weekend before getting back into it this morning with a long from $132.
Overall, current portfolio stands at about $108,000.
Current target: $113,500.
$113,500 sounds like a complete abstract number when looking at the $20,000 starting point, but hey - the math is mathing.
I want to wish you all the best and thanks for joining me on this journey!
The compound interest machine is starting to rear its ugly head, gl brother
Wait till it reaches a trade with a size of a million dollars. Market making firms will take note and intentionally force trades against him to manipulate prices.
No they wont. At a million dollar trade size, nobody is going to give a single flying you know what about his orders. Thats tiny for an order on most major cryptos.
On Solana perp dexes 1 mil size is pretty large for some protocols
Once he starts making hundreds of millions, then yea he'll get noticed lol. But at 1 million, yea it's nothing to market makers.
Once he starts making hundreds of millions and using five times, leverage, hes going to be looking at positions that are close to $1 billion. I dont follow Solana, but that might actually move some shit around.
Moving shit around is one thing, but getting hunted by whales and market makers is another thing lol.
At a billion dollars trade, surely someone will notice and go against him.
Liquidation wick incoming!
With $100M total he wouldn't use x5 because there's no way he could enter/exit his $500M size without affecting price by double digits...
Actually liquidity for futures on most altcoins is almost nonexistent past $500k-1M depending on volatility. Bitcoin is really the only place where he could have a proper $100M+ size trade on several exchanges and hope to see a market fill with low slippage. On perp DEXs it's much much worse.
I did a bit of math because i remembered some research.
Binance order book depth for +- 2% price range for Bitcoin is about $70M (bid + ask) spread through several price points. Meaning a $100M market order would sweep the book beyond 2% drawdown and practically fill around 3-4% away from current price.
On Solana it's $30M, meaning a $100M market order for SOL would practically collapse the market.
Summary: if OP succeeds in his journey, he would literally outgrow the crypto markets very soon.
By April next year hell reach a point where his orders will move and shake the market.
At that point he either trades in partial amounts or diversifies his portfolio even more and he slows down.
For now, hes clear for takeoff till he hits roughly $10m-20m trade sizes ($2m-$4m on account).
God Speed soldier.
Spot on analysis. Slippage is going to hurt him big time soon.
I mean i wish him well, but yeah he needs to increase his frequency of trading or lower the risk or have longer trades to overcome the slippage. He's at $100k right now, so x5 means $500k size per trade... that's already in the territory where some smaller coins have slippage. Solana he can still move with roughly $2-3M trade size but even there it will probably be noticeable on his fills and reduce profits.
But truth is that compounding 3% a day for 365 days is practically impossible just from a probability standpoint. He needs a winning streak of roughly 80-90% to avoid being liquidated on a bad week. He has 1/5 of room for error on trades. Meaning -20% on spot = liquidated. A -10% spot movement on altcoins is unfortunately a weekly occurrence during bull/bear markets.
One very bad wick to the downside from Binance or Coinbase and he's at $0.
Im following this guy to see how it plays out for exactly those reasons. He started with reasonable money, and hes gotten pretty far pretty quickly. The scale issue is eventually going to hit him like a brick. The likelihood that he is going to have a couple trade days that go against him is practically 100%. He will either have to hold through and pull a profit which is doubtful when its going against him that hard, or take a huge drawdown.
At about three or 4 million hes gonna start having major slippage issues on market trades. Even on exchanges like binance.
To be specific, 3% compounding for 365 days is 20,000 * 1.03^365.
That is roughly $964,000,000.
Now consider why top 0.0001% of all hedge fund managers on Wall Street with teams of PhDs from MIT/Imperial/Stanford, billion dollar data servers and algorithmic trades would "only" aim for roughly 20-30% a year of returns.
If compounding 3% a day was possible and sustainable for longer than a few months, there would be trillionaires existing in the trading world.
There's no single soul on earth, nor a computer, that was ever able to pull off 3% compounding daily interest for a year.
Mathematically OP has more chance of winning Powerball or Euromillions while simultaneously being hit by a meteorite than succeeding in his journey.
But, reaching $100k from $20k is already amazing and he should potentially think about taking a breather. He effectively made a $80k profit from nothing in couple of weeks... That's more than yearly salary of most people. If i was him, I'd go do some coke and go to Vegas or something. Why go to $1B when $1M would set him up for a lifetime already?
I think people trade these large portfolios differently than individuals do. The issue with individual traders is they blow up. Risk management is usually a large part of what they do, hedging against downward movements or upward movements. They take trades on both sides to limit losses, and secure a net overall profit.
They are essentially gambling but with mathematically sound risk management on every trade. OP is full yolo everyday. Eventually black will hit when you bet on red. It is a mathematical certainty.
I wish him the best though, it would be funny as shit to see someone do it.
Mms care about 1m for sure, and definitely more on Solana bc op is prob on a dex and liquidity for size as large as 1m is harder to facilitate. If not a dex, still care but easier to route order into the market/arbitrage
Exchanges can also decide to limit orders size for him if they decide he is too risky a trader to deal with, although this is very uncommon
At 1,000,000 size he's barely a blip on standard CEX futures like Coinbase or Kraken.
Liquidation pools on DEX are usually about $1-5M range for a heavy liquidator.
Whales will start hunting him at about $10M range, which is actually very soon based on his compounding math.
Problem is that he already passed $100k, meaning he's using roughly $500k collateral size with x5 leverage. That's actually already a decent enough order level for high frequency traders to start making micro pennies off of him on every trade.
In about two weeks his size will hit $1M mark, where slippage starts to eat into those 3%. It won't be 3% anymore because market makers will see his buy/sell patterns and naturally pull liquidity to force a worse fill for him.
But given that he trades Solana, he might be safe for a while until he hits $10M collateral mark. Solana is massive, it might be able to take those trades but the liquidity will definitely dry up at some point.
If he can automate his trades into discrete tranches he can delay this problem somewhat, although at his timeframe (next year) he is definitely going to run into systemic liquidity depth issues.
Eventually he is simply too fat for the pond he is fishing in.
His issue is the leverage combined with size on sub optimal exchanges. He definitely needs to find where most people are trading bc he can be easily wiped out if there's no depth.
He might just have to hold for longer periods of time to avoid slippage taking away a chunk of his profits once he reaches multimillion mark.
Wait till it reaches a trade with a size of a million dollars. Market making firms will take note and intentionally force trades against him to manipulate prices.
The math may be mathing but the psych will start psyching. Stick to your risk management strategy regardless what happens to the market. See you next week!
I definitely relate to this sentiment. The numbers don't look as real past a certain point even though they are literally just numbers. Emotions start getting tied to the dollar amount instead of the trade.
This. This perfectly sums up why I struggle with trading now that I've actually developed some skills. Once I grew my regular investments enough that a small swing was a massive chunk of personal net worth, my brain broke. I struggle to make even tiny entries, so I stay on the sidelines most of the time.
I really miss the days when a big swing didn't keep me up at night.
He is doing it, keep it up good job
Following your posts, brother. You are doing very well. Just a piece of advice - you are doing extremely risky things with compounding daily. At some point, think about taking your initial $20k plus about $30k profit and leave it in a safe spot for a few weeks (HYSA or money market).
Then use the remaining $50-60k to continue a new journey. This way you'll basically "rinse and repeat" without risking your entire life on a single bad trade that will eventually happen (nobody wins forever).
Other than that, rooting for ya!
This advice is sound, but OP is clearly doing this as a personal challenge. If he stays at his current level he'll reach $1M in roughly 2-3 months.
I'd rather wait until $100k profit and then take it off. That's the first major milestone of "I can change things in real life" and it protects he's initial capital.
Keep on going soldier!
Legend in the making? GL HF!
Good run. May the force be with u
Best of luck. 100k milestone reached.
This is exactly why I subbed to this place. Keep going on that run soldier!
I am always here so cheering for you, this will be so wild if it ever reached completion.
What exactly do you look for prior to taking a trade? What confluence do you use? Great run so far, love to see it.
I like high risk. Will check up on this run often, very nice result so far. You already turned $20k into basically a downpayment for a home (depending where you live).
Doing it in about a month or so? Insane.
Can't stop, won't stop! Good progress so far.
I like this. Good luck and have fun, rooting for you.
The goal is huge but you are already killing it. Following!
Congratulations on hitting $100k+. This is a psychological barrier for most people who never seen that much liquidity in a single account. Don't let it cloud your judgement on trades.
Good luck!
The 3% machine has started... God speed to you and your crypto wallet.
You actually reached over 100k from 20k?! Man if you make it to $1M in the next few months, you're officially a hero.
Good results so far, following is a must!
I can't believe people are actually seeing this and not realizing that this is likely a signal to sell crypto or something lol. Bullrun is officially into "I am making a billion dollars" stage.
Im guessing you trade breakouts with strict stop losses? Or you just DCA until profit?
What indicators do you use OP? Also, what are your risk management strategies and how long do you usually stay in a trade?
This is going to get real juicy once you cross the one million mark. I think somewhere around five to 10 million youre actually going to start having issues with market liquidity unless you do partial orders every few minutes to spread out the slippage.
Fingers crossed for you!
The power of compound interest is a beautiful thing. If he keeps this up for just a few more months, he'll be a multi-millionaire. Good results so far!
Congrats on passing the $100k mark. This is where things get interesting from a psychological perspective. Hope you make it all the way!
On Solana perp dexes 1 mil size is pretty large for some protocols
Compounding interest and crypto? That's a dangerous mix. But it looks like you know what you are doing so far. Let's see where this goes.
The 3% target is actually quite conservative for crypto standards if you are a good trader. But keeping it consistent for a year is where the true difficulty lies.
Go for it OP.
Wait list guy back at it! Great progress so far, looking forward to see how this turns out in April 2025.
At some point you will have to stop using 5x leverage or use multiple accounts on different exchanges to avoid getting REKT by a random whale or exchange liquidation hunt.
For now, $500k size per trade is manageable but already big. Stay safe!
This is beautiful. Following the updates, good luck with the trades!
Already multiplied the entry by 5x in a few weeks? That's incredible. If you don't mind me asking, how many hours a day do you spend charting/trading?
OP is actually a monster. 440% growth in such a short time is amazing. Don't listen to the haters about liquidity, by the time you reach $100M+ you will probably be trading differently anyway.
GL GL!
Crypto is crazy but 3% a day is a whole another level of discipline. Hope you reach that billion!
The numbers are starting to get serious now. $100k is a lot of money to most people. Stay focused and dont let the dollar amount affect your entries.
Best of luck!
I've seen many people try the 3% challenge and most fail at the first major drawdown. The fact that you stayed out of the market during the weekend dip tells me you have the discipline required.
Following this journey closely.
Great run OP, but please be careful with the compounding once you hit $1M. Market impact becomes a very real thing that can eat your profits instantly through slippage.
Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. Good luck with the billion dollar dream!
Wait till it reaches a trade with a size of a million dollars. Market making firms will take note and intentionally force trades against him to manipulate prices.
Wait till it reaches a trade with a size of a million dollars. Market making firms will take note and intentionally force trades against him to manipulate prices.
On Solana perp dexes 1 mil size is pretty large for some protocols
On Solana perp dexes 1 mil size is pretty large for some protocols
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